by Eric James
Staff Writer
Well, it's time for our annual countdown to the Oscars. Today marks the one week point from the film industry's biggest night of the year.
For once, however, it is the independent film industry that has received the most kudos. But as the two supporting categories may prove, just 'cause they received the most nods, it don't mean they gonna snag all the statuettes.
As our countdown begins, let's start with the one sure lock of the evening: Best Supporting Actress. The Oscar goes to: Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces.
How do we know she's going to win? Most people consider Bacall one of the all-time great film actresses, but she has never won an Academy Award or been nominated.
Yes, this is Bacall's first nod in her multitude of years on screen. Unfortunately, Bacall doesn't truly deserve the award, considering the caliber of the other nominees this year.
Barbara Hershey, in A Portrait of a Lady, delivered the best performance in this category. However, she has not snagged a single award. Joan Allen received her second nomination in a row for her turn in The Crucible, and the Academy may reward her for what many considered an upset last year when she did not win for Nixon.
The other two nominees, Juliette Binoche (The English Patient) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Secrets and Lies), have both received critics' awards but do not have the momentum to sway a guilty Academy that feels they have ignored Bacall long enough.
While the Best Supporting Actor category at one time seemed like a two-way race between Cuba Gooding, Jr. for Jerry Maguire and Edward Norton for Primal Fear, it also appears to have become a pretty definite lock.
Norton will probably step aside while Gooding takes home the tiny statuette. His star-making turn in Maguire is the stuff Academy dreams are made of. The win will also make up for the Academy's guilty feelings over long-snubbing the African-American community.
The only way Gooding will not win is if the Academy intends to award Tom Cruise in the Best Actor category. I believe the Academy will spread the awards around this year, with each movie taking home one statuette (save Fargo, who I predict will take two home, and The English Patient which will snag three).
However, if Gooding does not win, expect Norton to make the winning speech. James Woods, who turned in an impressive performance in The Ghosts of Mississippi, will only win if the Academy feels he has paid his dues. He has, but he will not win this Oscar year.
Armin Mueller-Stahl, while delivering one of the most stirring performances this year, will also be overlooked for his turn in Shine, due to the fact that the film will probably take home a Best Actor statuette.
That leaves Fargo's William H. Macy. Delivering perhaps the best performance out of all twenty acting nominees this year, Macy, who spent most of the year being overlooked, will be looked over once again. His win will only come in the absence of his co-star not winning in the Best Actress Category (highly unlikely, see tomorrow's column).
So, in the year of independent films, the Academy-mainly a Hollywood dominated club-will find a way to award their own in at least two of the six big categories. Gooding and Bacall both star in two big Hollywood pictures, two of only a handful that made the cut this year.