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Smith: Area growth will keep ahead of average

Population still on rise, economist says

Cougar News Services

The U.S. economy should see steady growth through the year, and Houston's involvement in the energy sector should keep the city ahead of the curve, UH economist Barton Smith said during his annual real estate symposium in May.

Smith, the UH director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting, said job growth is running about 1.6 percent nationally.

"If energy prices remain firm -- though not necessarily as high as they currently are -- that, along with the improved tone of the U.S. economy, will stimulate the Houston region to the point of generating new jobs at a rate somewhat better than the national economy this year," Smith said.

However, Smith said the national economy growth will not be as strong as it was in the mid-1990s, nor will local growth be as great as it was in 1997 and 1998.

Smith added that housing prices could drop as the market stabilizes, but he said the apartment market will likely face problems because of a large number of new units built recently.

Overall, Smith said long-term growth forecasts for the region have not changed a great deal in the past two years. He said the population of the Houston area is expected to exceed 6 million by 2020, with most of the growth in the suburbs, but with continuing urban renewal in the city.
 

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