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Sports

Postseason hopes?

If the Cougars win the C-USA tourney, then they've made it to the Big Dance. If not, here's what they need to do

Sam Khan Jr.
The Daily Cougar

For the first time in a long time, the Cougars have something more to talk about than "maybe next year." As the season nears its end, they look like a team that will be playing in the postseason. The only question is, which postseason will it be: the NCAA Tournament or the National Invitation Tournament?

While a trip to the NIT is nice and shows some the immense progress the program has made in a year's time, everyone wants to get to the Big Dance and Houston is no different. So how do the Cougars ensure that they won't be without their dancing shoes in March? After perusing records, projections and the like, it has become clear that in order to make the field of 65, they must win out. Run the table. Win every regular season game left on the schedule, and then some.

Or you could throw all that out and hope they sweep through the Conference USA Tournament, in which case they would earn an automatic bid. But let's play devil's advocate for the sake of this column, because otherwise you could end it right here. Plus, that's a monumental task.

It won't be easy to get in, as some crucial losses leave them virtually no room for error. As they stand now, they're 15-10 (6-5 in C-USA, good for eighth), with a Ratings Percentage Index ranking of 83 and a strength of schedule rank of 119. Losses to Tulane at home (Jan. 26) and at Texas Christian (Jan. 19) definitely hurt. They probably wouldn't have minded having the last-second loss at Rice (Nov. 30) back either. Of their five games left, three are at Hofheinz (South Florida, TCU, Alabama-Birmingham) and two are on the road (East Carolina, Marquette). Winning the rest of the regular-season games would put them at 20-10 overall, with a C-USA record of 11-5, a solid résumé.

But in looking at the NCAA field, it looks like C-USA will get four or possibly five bids into the tournament. Given the craziness that can happen during conference tournament season, we'll say, for the sake of argument, that C-USA sends five teams.

Of those five spots, three are already locks to get in: Louisville (21-4, 9-2 C-USA), Charlotte (17-4, 8-2), and Cincinnati (18-6, 6-4). These three are also all currently in the Associated Press Top 25.

Right now, DePaul (16-5, 8-2 C-USA) looks like a solid pick to be fourth with their RPI ranking of 31, although a loss at UAB could change that.

So that leaves four teams other than Houston on the bubble for the fifth spot -- UAB, Memphis, TCU and Marquette. The boxes to the right are a breakdown of where each team stands, including their RPI and strength of schedule rankings courtesy of CollegeRPI.com.

While there's a chance one or more of these teams may falter, Houston still has a heck of a challenge ahead of them. They may need 21 or 22 wins to impress the selection committee, meaning they'll need to add a few Ws in the C-USA tourney. But they have some hope and something to play for, and that's much more than they have had in recent years.
 

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