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News

Bush to deliver State of Union address

UH profs: Tonight's speech intended to instill confidence

by KELSIE HAHN
The Daily Cougar

President George W. Bush will give his annual State of the Union Address tonight at 8 p.m., and UH political experts expect the address to focus on the Bush administration's triumphs, downplay its weaknesses and strengthen the American people's confidence in the leadership of both Bush and the Republican Party.

The address will update Congress on the achievements of 2005 as well as outline plans for the future.

UH professors predict Bush will most likely keep the coming mid-term congressional elections and low approval ratings in mind as he addresses both Congress and the nation.

"(The address) takes place in the context that he's had a tough year, his public standing has fallen significantly. His main focus will be to convince Americans that he's in charge, he's got some answers to national problems," Richard Murray, UH professor of political science and associate dean of the Honors College, said.

In November, a Gallup poll reported that Bush's approval rating dropped to 37 percent — the lowest of his presidency. A mid-January Gallup poll put Bush's approval rating at 43 percent.

In order to instill confidence, Murray said Bush should focus on recent political victories -- namely, the expected confirmation of Supreme Court Justice nominee Samuel Alito. 

"We expect that Justice Alito will have just been confirmed," Murray said. "I would think the president would make that center in his speech. It's one of the few clear political victories the president scored in recent months."

Political science professor Raymond Duch had a similar prediction. 

"The main focus, I suspect, is going to be the positive aspects of what's happened, specifically economic growth. I think he'll point out the U.S. economy is the fastest growing economy of all the developed nations. That's his major success story." 

Duch said the president will probably cite recent democratic elections in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of which have been major goals of Bush's administration.

However, delicate subjects will most likely be avoided in tonight's address, Murray said. 

"Don't look for big proposals, nothing dramatic," Murry said.

Viewers probably will not be hearing much about Social Security and other major policies of the past, Murry said.

Duch said, "He'll probably try to downsize the whole issue of when we're going to leave Iraq, probably not talk a lot about the current situation in Palestine."

Bush will instead look at proposals for reforming medical insurance issues and reducing government spending, Duch said.

Historically, the State of the Union Address has been able to help a president's approval rating, a goal Bush will most likely pursue with tonight's speech, Murray said.

President Clinton's 1998 State of the Union Address, which came on the heels of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, is the primary reason Clinton maintained high approval ratings, Murray said.

"He came on and gave a confident speech. He used that speech to steady the course," Murray said.

"(Approval ratings) usually can get a temporary bump out of the State of the Union," Duch said. "He has historically gotten a bump in the past out of these speeches. The party's sort of rock bottom right now, so I think they'll get a small bump." 

Duch also said Bush may try to portray Democrats as "soft on terrorism" by bringing recent wire-tapping issues into play.

However, Murray said this may not be the best course for Bush to take. 

"If I were writing a speech for the president, I would probably reach out more on issues for which you need more support from Democrats and independents. The president has not done much of that since his education bill," Murray said. "I don't think he would take my advice."

Murray said he sees the majority of the speech's impact coming less from its writing than from its presentation.

"A lot of it is just style and manner. How reassured and competent and in charge does he look? What's the feel of the speech? Not just the content in terms of words," Murray said.

Duch encouraged those who hear the speech to be critical of what is said.

"They should be a little cynical. This is an effort by the president to position himself well and politically, so they should look at it with a bit of skepticism," Duch said.

The address and the following Democratic Party response will be broadcast live on most news stations and networks, including CNN, FOX, UPN, ABC, CBS and PBS.
 

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