Hi 76 / Lo 59
|
Hi 76 / Lo 59 |
Student Publications
©1991-2007
Last modified:
Contact:
|
Volume 71, Issue 95,
Wednesday, February 22, 2006
Opinion Polls showing promise for Dems David Salinas
The 2006 mid-term election is more than eight months away, but there are clear signs now of what may transpire this autumn. There are many new issues involved in this campaign, from the pathetic government response to Katrina to the CIA leak to Jack Abramoff scandal, but once again the dominant issue will most likely be the war in Iraq. After reviewing recent polling data, the Republican Party should be worried, yet thankful, that the cliché, "If the elections were held today…" is still very much hypothetical. Many politicians claim that opinion polls don't matter. They are wrong. Both republicans and democrats spend millions hiring polling organizations, and the Bush administration went so far in 2004 as to have former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge meet with Republican pollsters Frank Luntz and Bill McInturff before Ridge embarked on a 10-day, "non-political" tour of battleground states, according to USA Today. So despite what Bush loyalists may say, the polls they are reading these days are incredibly troublesome. The latest Time magazine poll had George W. Bush's approval rating at 40 percent. The CNN/Gallup and Marists polls had the president at 39 percent and 40 percent, respectively. But to get even deeper, USAsurvey.com reviewed state-by-state polling that showed only seven giving the president favorable marks. Forty-three states gave Bush an approval rating of less than 50 percent, including Texas. But the important states to look at are the "swing states" with congressional seats up for grabs. For Democrats to retake the majority in the U.S. Senate, they must win six seats. Though this is a daunting task, when one considers that they have more retiring incumbents to replace than Republicans to oust, it is far from impossible. One of the most intriguing races will be in Tennessee, with Bill Frist likely stepping down to pursue a futile attempt at the presidency. The Democratic nominee will be Rep. Harold Ford, Jr., an eight-year congressman from Memphis, who, at the age of 36, would join Barack Obama, D-Ill., as the only other black member of the Senate. Rep. Ed Bryant, R-Tenn., will likely be the Republican candidate in the race, and Rasmussen polls find him barely leading Ford by as few as two percentage points, within the margin of error. Another possible Democratic pickup in the Senate would be in Montana, against beleaguered Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. Burns is under heavy fire these days for his involvement with Jack Abramoff and the American Indian tribes he accepted money from, which could cost him heavily in the fall. John Morrison, a state auditor, is the Democratic front-runner at this point, and recent polls have shown him leading Burns by seven points. One of the more surprising potential victories for Democrats is in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum is trailing Bob Casey, Jr. by 16 percentage points. Santorum has been trailing by double figures since October. Casey, the state's treasurer, may also be receiving support from name recognition, considering his father was one of the most popular governors in the state. Where Democrats may have hurt themselves recently is with the controversy over Paul Hackett's resignation from the Ohio Senate race. Hackett, a veteran of the war in Iraq, gained recognition by barely losing a congressional race in a very Republican district. Though it is not clear what exactly happened to make him step down -- whether he was forced out by Democratic elites or just couldn't raise enough of the necessary funds --the party will have a much tougher time defeating moderate Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, who is currently nine points ahead of any challenger. In a generic polling of the electorate, Zogby America found Democrats leading Republicans by 10 percentage points in congressional elections. In the few districts that haven't been gerrymandered, Democrats will have to rely on strong candidates in each race. The biggest misconception about the Democratic Party is that they don't have any ideas and that they lack a voice. But the reality is they probably have too many ideas and too many voices which cause the overall cacophony of "indecisiveness." But Republicans can no longer use that argument considering they now lack leadership as well. With the already lame duck George W. Bush, and his Elmer Fudd impersonator at the helm, the midterm election will finally ring true Tip O'Neill's observation, "All politics is local." It's every man and woman for themselves. Salinas, an opinion columnist for The Daily Cougar,
|
To contact the
To contact other members
of
 |