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News

Expert predicts shift in Congress

Independent voters and negative feelings toward presidency 
could benefit Democrats

by LOUIE VERA
The Daily Cougar

On the eve of Election Day, UH's political science professor Richard Murray predicted independent voters will likely be the force that gives the Democrats the upper hand this year.

"The Democrats will probably win this election because even though I think the Republican base in the end stick with their candidates, the independent voters are much closer to the Democrats," Murray said. 

"They don't like the war in Iraq, they don't like the direction of the country, and they give President Bush low job ratings, they are now very different from Democrats and there are enough of them that I think they'll tip the ballots, certainly in the United States House (of Representatives) races," Murray said.

On why voters may be swayed to vote on the left side, Murray cited Americans' ongoing frustrations with war overseas.

"Some of that is general feeling that the country is headed in the wrong direction and to try something else," he said. "But there is this very specific concern that things are going very badly in Iraq and the Bush administration doesn't have a plan that looks credible to voters. So a lot of voters are looking to punish the administration.

"The swing states that are still undecided will be receiving most of the media coverage and will be a critical factor in who has the majority in the Senate at the end of Election Day.

Murray sees Republicans falling out of favor with voters and as a result resorting to attacking their opponents on more personal swipes than political issues.

"There are not very many issues that work well with Republicans in this environment, so they tend to attack the individual character of their opponents: ‘There's something wrong, they're not a good person, immoral,' or they say they'll raise your taxes. The Republicans planned on running more on the war, painting the Democrats as more of a cut-and- run party," he said. "But the war has gone so badly that that's not a good issue for Republicans, so more of their attacks tend to be personal down the stretch."

Not only are they forced to use fear tactics, but the Republican Party can no longer use its title as a way to sway voters, Murray said.

"Right now, the Republican's brand is not very popular," he said. "So there is almost no one running saying ‘I'm a Republican vote for me.' In fact, the voters are telling us by a pretty large margin that they are inclined to vote against Republicans, so Republican candidates if they are going to defend themselves, particularly if they are incumbent office holders, basically have to attack the individual they are running against."

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