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Volume 72, Issue 56,
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
News FIGHT TO THE FINISH Gov. Rick Perry’s fate and congressional control hangs in the balance on Election Day as voters battle apathy, smear campaigns by CHELSEA ADAMS
Today marks the final chance for Texas voters to make their voices heard. According to the secretary of state’s Web site, more than 1 million, or 13.21 percent of registered voters, took advantage of the two-week early-voting period. That’s just a slight increase from the 2002 midterm elections. This election is pivotal for determining the direction America will take in the next two years and beyond. If Democrats pick up the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives, it will be the first time in more than a decade, but they’ll be stuck with a Republican president with veto power. Political science professor Richard Murray said President Bush pushes the envelope on a variety of issues and isn’t a president with limited goals. "There’s a lot at stake," he said. The direction of Bush’s last two years in office will be different, whether he continues to have a Republican-dominated Congress or whether he has to deal with one or two houses controlled by the Democrats, Murray said. Some may be feeling a little cynical about whether their votes will matter after watching negative ads. Communication professor Garth Jowett said political ads are effective despite their controversial nature. Research on negative campaigning has been fairly consistent in showing that though voters don’t like the ads, they do effect voters’ decisions during election cycles, Jowett said. "Negative campaigning does have a more resilient affect on changing peoples’ minds than just ordinary bland, happy sort of advertising. "So from that perspective, that’s why people continue to do it," he said. However, campaign ads probably aren’t the reason Gov. Rick Perry is leading the gubernatorial race, he said. Jowett said a three-way split between the opposition will likely give Perry a plurality of the vote, all that’s needed to win. Without the other candidates splitting the vote, Jowett predicted Democrat Chris Bell might have clinched the office. "I think that Chris Bell would have stood a good 50/50 shot of beating (Perry) if he was the only opposition candidate. Much to my surprise, there are a lot of people who are basically Republicans who find Perry to be a real do-nothing," Jowett said. "Except for a few die-hard Republicans, nobody finds this governor terribly satisfactory." A new Dallas Morning News survey shows 39 percent of voters are likely to vote for Perry. Democratic challenger Bell has 22 percent; independents Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Richard "Kinky" Friedman are trailing with 18 and 11 percent, respectively. Recent Zogby and Rasmussen polls showed U.S. Senate incumbent Kay Bailey Hutchinson with a significant lead over Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky. Nationally, a number of polls indicate control of the Senate is teetering on a few toss-up races Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana but a new Pew Research poll finds the House safe territory for Democrats, who will probably take more than the 15 seats needed to win it. Texas’ District 22 may well be one of those seats despite recent boosts by Vice President Dick Cheney and Bush to write-in opponent Shelley Sekula-Gibbs’ campaign. Texas’ District 23, another constituency altered by Tom DeLay’s 2005 redistricting plan, will have a primary election today as a result of a Texas Supreme Court decision that struck down DeLay’s plan. Republican Henry Bonilla is running unopposed in the primary and six Democrats are competing for nomination. Ciro Rodriguez enjoys the most name recognition since he represented the former District 28 for seven years. If no candidate receives more than 50 percent offers, a runoff will be held for the seat. Another tight House race is in Texas’ District 17, where Bush’s Crawford ranch is located. Incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards will probably hold it; Van Taylor, an Iraq war veteran running as a Republican, is running against him. Students should be sure to gather as much information about the candidates as possible before voting, Jowett said. Calling a candidate’s office may be the best way to get information about their position on issues that are important to you, Jowett said. More information on the candidates is available on the secretary of state’s Web site, www.sos.state.tx.us. Send comments to dcnews@mail.uh.edu |
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